Struggling to pick out the facts from the figures? Reality from the rubbish? Sense from the silly season? We’ve got you sorted in our daily dose of the Transfer Predictor, where we round up the latest rumours with an analytical spin.
We sort through the most eye-catching transfer reports of the past 24 hours and give a balanced judgment on whether the move really will happen – and why.
Today’s edition features potential signings for Arsenal, AC Milan and West Ham United:
RUBEN DIAS
Benfica -> €66m -> Arsenal
AWOL Laurent Koscielny’s fervent desire to quit Emirates Stadium has seen the Gunners plan an add-on laden deal to Benfica for their promising Portugal centre-back, according to the Daily Mail.
Why it will happen: Skipper Koscielny’s intransigence about a move back to France has put Arsenal in a tough position. Action is required and Dias is a target of rare talent. He, surprisingly, has not been picked off yet by a Champions League. This provides opportunity for the Gunners to get the job done.
Why it won’t happen: Dias’ €66m release clause would wipe out Arsenal’s meagre summer budget – and then some. A proposal to pay a small up-front fee and stick in future add-ons has been proposed. But will Benfica accept such an arrangement again after they agreed an instalment plan with Atletico Madrid for €126m talent Joao Felix? Dias’ name also continues to be linked to richer clubs, such as Manchester United.
JORDAN VERETOUT
Fiorentina -> €25m -> AC Milan
Discussions on a straight transfer fee have intensified between the clubs and an agreement for the French midfielder is close, according to gianlucadimarzio.com.
Why it will happen: Milan and Roma are competing hard to land the cultured ex-France Under-21 international, whose keen for European football next term. The Rossoneri appear to have made a breakthrough after they put forward an increased cash amount and ditched including Argentina battler Lucas Biglia in their offer. La Viola also need to make a substantial sale soon so they can initiate their own summer market plans.
Why it won’t happen: A €5m gap remains between the two sides. Fiorentina are also imminently set to meet with Roma and they could counter any Milan bid.
Transfer predictor: 8/10
SEBASTIEN HALLER
Eintracht Frankfurt -> £40m -> West Ham United
The Hammers are in talks to make the ex-France Under-21 striker their replacement for Marko Arnautovic, according to Sky Sports.
Why it will happen: Manuel Pellegrini’s men are in desperate need for a new centre forward after the summer exits of Arnautovic, Lucas Perez and Andy Carroll. They have also been beaten by Valencia to the signature of Uruguay and Celta Vigo star Maxi Gomez. The Hammers are able to offer Haller and his representatives a substantial wage increase, plus meet Eintracht’s demands that would beat the club-record £35m paid to Lazio for Brazil winger Felipe Anderson last summer.
Why it won’t happen: Haller is a man in demand after he netted 19 times in 39 run-outs in 2018/19. Manchester United are reported to have identified him as a replacement for Romelu Lukaku if the Belgium target man is sold to Inter Milan. Eintracht are also flush with cash after the sale of Luka Jovic to Real Madrid and are not required to sell Haler. Waiting to see if a bidding war begins would suit them perfectly.
Transfer predictor: 7/10