Struggling to pick out the facts from the figures? Reality from the rubbish? Sense from the silly season? We’ve got you sorted in our daily dose of the Transfer Predictor, where we round up the latest rumours with an analytical spin.
We sort through the most eye-catching transfer reports of the past 24 hours and give a balanced judgment on whether the move really will happen – and why.
Today’s edition features potential signings for Barcelona, Manchester City and Arsenal.
LAUTARO MARTINEZ
Inter -> €112 million -> Barcelona
Marca report that Barcelona view 21-year-old Lautaro Martinez as a long-term Luis Suarez replacement. The Spanish giants are reportedly prepared to pay the Argentine’s release clause.
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN
After showing promise in Inter colours, Martinez went on to impress at the Copa America. The forward scored two goals in four games and displayed good chemistry with Lionel Messi.
Martinez is young and is brimming with potential. With short supply of young number nines that could be incorporated at the Camp Nou, Barcelona could put in serious efforts in signing the Argentine.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN
Antoine Griezmann’s transfer to the Catalan club is all but confirmed and Neymar is reportedly queuing up. It’s close to impossible that Barcelona can afford to spend €112 million more on another player in the same window.
Besides, Martinez’s agent recently confirmed that he has not been approached by Barcelona yet.
TRANSFER RATING: 3/10
Rodri
Atletico Madrid -> €70 million -> Manchester City
Several reliable sources including journalist Fabrizio Romano have confirmed that Rodri’s transfer to Manchester City is imminent. The Premier League champions will pay the midfielder’s release clause of €70m and hand him a five-year contract.
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN
€70m for a player of Rodri’s quality is definitely a fair price in the current market. Since City will be paying the release clause, they are not obliged to negotiate with Atletico, who are most certainly unhappy with core players leaving the club.
The midfielder could be a perfect replacement for Fernandinho and Pep Guardiola could be the perfect player to churn the most out of his vast potential. This transfer could hence pan out well for the player and the club.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN
With Fernandinho’s departure all but confirming Rodri as a starter, the obstacle of lack of playing time will be absent.
Rodri will be heading to the Etihad in all probability and only a bumper offer from Atletico is likely to sway his mind.
TRANSFER RATING: 9/10
Jarrod Bowen
Hull City -> £12 million -> Arsenal
Arsenal have reportedly been following Hull City striker Jarrod Bowen since January and are now prepared to make a formal approach. The Sun report that the Gunners will bid £12m for the 22-year-old.
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN
Arsenal will find that unlike most of their transfer targets, Bowen is affordable. At £12m, Bowen could be a bargain of a great back-up striker, boasting of English football experience.
The player scored 22 goals for the Tigers last season and could add depth to Arsenal’s shallow attacking options. Most importantly, age is on Bowen’s side as he looks to impress in the Premier League.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN
To start with, no formal approach has been made yet and Arsenal could end their pursuit of the striker on the off-chance that they manage to rope in Wilfried Zaha on the cheap.
North London rivals Tottenham are reportedly in the tussle and between the two clubs, any young player is more likely to choose the Champions League runners-up.
TRANSFER RATING: 6/10