Struggling to pick out the facts from the figures? Reality from the rubbish? Sense from the silly season? We’ve got you sorted in our daily dose of the Transfer Predictor, where we round up the latest rumours with an analytical spin.
We sort through the most eye-catching transfer reports of the past 24 hours and give a balanced judgment on whether the move really will happen – and why.
Today’s edition features potential signings for Real Madrid, Barcelona and Tottenham.
ANTOINE GRIEZMANN
RUMOUR: Atletico Madrid -> €120m -> Barcelona
Elements at Atleti believe that star forward Antoine Griezmann has finally agreed to join Barcelona this summer, according to Cadena SER.
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN: Griezmann prevarications and dramatics about last year’s aborted switch to Barca were well documented. This interest has been rekindled after another Champions League humiliation. If Griezmann is now willing to listen, the deal is a simple one to conclude because of a €120m buyout clause that comes into effect this July.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: Barca should be sending €150m Ajax’s way for Frenkie de Jong and Matthijs de Ligt. Can they afford to lavish even more money on Griezmann? Major player sales would be required. Also, can the ageing Luis Suarez and the France superstar exist in the same squad?
TRANSFER PREDICTOR: 8/10
GARETH BALE
RUMOUR: Real Madrid -> £10m (loan) -> Tottenham
An escape route from the wilderness at Los Blancos has been offered to Bale by his former club, according to The Sun.
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN: Head coach Zinedine Zidane has made his negative intentions for Bale obvious throughout much of his return to Santiago Bernabeu. With an extensive summer refit to pay for, Los Blancos must clear space in their squad and wage bill. Bale became a global icon at Spurs from 2007-13. A comeback will appeal.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: Bale currently earns £600,000 a week – a gargantuan figure Spurs would struggle to pay half of. This would mean Madrid having to subsidise the lion’s share. The Wales forward is 29 now and has scored eight times in 29 La Liga outings this season. Would Spurs even want to go back to the future?
TRANSFER PREDICTOR: 6/10
EDEN HAZARD
RUMOUR: Chelsea -> €100m -> Real Madrid
The Belgium winger’s long-awaited move to Santiago Bernabeu will be confirmed after May 29’s Europa League final, according to L’Equipe.
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN: A sense of inevitability surrounds this switch. Hazard has confirmed he’s told Chelsea of his intentions, his contract expires next summer and Zidane is a confirmed fan. Once the Europa decider against Arsenal is done, everything should move quickly.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: The Blues are renowned as tricky negotiators in the market. But Hazard’s rejection of a new deal to extend his stay at a club he joined in 2012 has put them in a weak position. The 28-year-old also only wants to move to Madrid.
TRANSFER PREDICTOR: 9/10