In just seven days, Real Madrid watched their entire season crumble. To make matters worse, eternal rivals Barcelona were responsible for a large portion of their demolition. 

The Catalan giants defeated Los Blancos 3-0 and 1-0 to eliminate them from the Copa del Rey and then La Liga’s title race. Ajax ensured their entire foundation was ripped out by collapsing their campaign with a damaging defeat in the Champions League. 

With the clear end of an era, we examine the data in league matches only to try and discover the reasons for their demise.

NO RONALDO, NO PARTY 

It’s been said already but requires repeating. While Cristiano Ronaldo endured a massive slump at the beginning of last season, and most of his goals in the second half of the campaign arrived from within a few yards of goals, his influence was undeniable. 

Opting against signing a replacement after his departure to Juventus has backfired massively on Madrid because even when he was not at his best, the Portuguese superstar was still a tier above Karim Benzema and Gareth Bale when it came to finishing. 

The decline in average goals Madrid score every game was set back in the 2014/15 season. But the rate at which the numbers drop off this season is seriously alarming, as seen from the graph. Los Blancos are unable to score even two goals a game this season. 

Variation of G/game across five seasons

xG (Expected goals) give us a measure of the quality of the chance as and when a player takes a shot. Naturally, the ratio of G/xG (goals over expected goals) should quantify how clinical the attackers have been in front of goal. 

Clearly, even with reference to the quality of the chances, the attackers have performed poorly this season. Yet again, the decline was in the 2014/15 season but the rate at which the strikers are losing their efficiency has increased in the last two seasons. 

Variation of G/xG across five seasons

This again points to the absence of Ronaldo who would at least bury simple chances – something Benzema, Bale and Vinicius Junior have struggled to replicate.

Real president Florentino Perez naively believed the team had the quality to fill in the gap of their record goalscorer. It’s simply not been the case as the numbers show.  

DECLINE OF KROOS AND MODRIC 

The striker-slander aside, we then move to check if they are serviced well by the midfield. We inspect the xA90 (Expected assists per 90 minutes) of Luka Modric and Toni Kroos and find that both players are having one of their worst seasons ever. Statistically, this is their lowest point in the last four years. 

XA90 gives us a good measure of the quality of the chances the player has produced. Clearly, the creativity of both the players have taken a hit this season. 

The decline of Toni Kroos

Kroos recorded one of his best returns two years ago when he managed to have most of his key-passes converted and created 12 assists in 29 games. This season, the German has registered just two assists over 19 appearances. 

One could say that the strikers are not doing justice to the chances he has created, but the rapid decline in his xA90 numbers points to the fact that Kroos has not been creating a lot of clear goal-scoring chances himself, this season. 

His Croatian partner in midfield has not done a lot of good to his reputation either and the scrutiny of Modric’s numbers will be harsher, given he’s the current holder of the Ballon d’Or. 

The decline of Luka Modric

The quality of the chances produced by Modric is again questionable, but he has done better than Kroos in this department. It’s also worth noting that he has been seriously overworked this season. The World Cup finalist made 26 appearances last season and he’s just one short of that number now with two months of football left to play. 

xG/Game (Expected goals per game) is another statistic that has perfectly captured both the decline of the midfielders and the inability of the attackers to get into the right positions. 

Variation of xG/game across five seasons

Since xG gives a measure of the quality of chances keeping in mind the spatial orientation of the players, the decline in the numbers shows that Benzema, Bale and Vinicius are just not as instinctive as Ronaldo when it comes to getting into the right places. 

DEFENCE IS A TOTAL SHAMBLES 

Stating the obvious? The obvious has been understated. Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane are popularly considered two of the best centre-backs in the world and that has simply not been the case for the last two seasons. 

Simple starts first, Madrid have conceded goals at an alarming rate of almost 1.2 goals per game this season, their worst ever in the last five years.  

Variation of GA/game across five seasons

It’d true that the goalkeeper deserves a chunk of the blame and it’s clear that Thibaut Courtois has had a poor debut season at Madrid.

However, the xGA per game (Expected goals against per game) – which measures the quality of the chances handed to the opponents – shows that the defenders have been the primary culprit. 

Variation of xGA/game across five seasons

A high xGA means that the quality of the chances the opponents have enjoyed is high. The fact that this is Madrid’s highest xGA in the last five years points to the fact that the defenders are allowing the opposition to get into the right areas more often than ever. 

Madrid is currently a concatenation of a fragile defence, stagnant midfield and a toothless attack. They need a massive squad overhaul in order to prevent a crisis – if they are not in one already.

Data taken from understat.com, updated until Real Madrid 0-1 Barcelona