On the face of it, both South Africa and England enter the Boxing Day Test in Durban on level terms. The hosts were soundly thrashed in their previous series – 3-0 by India in an encounter dominated by spin – while the Englishmen lost to Pakistan 2-0 in the UAE. So that should, theoretically, make it a fairly even contest.
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But scratch below the surface and one gets a sense that these are two teams on different trajectories. While South Africa are under intense pressure to get back on track after their No. 1 Test status suffered a big jolt at the hands of the Indians, England go into the four-match series in a much more positive frame of mind as they have less issues to worry about.
South Africa’s batting is looking increasingly frazzled, with the alarming dip in form of Hashim Amla and Faf du Plessis a major cause for concern. AB de Villiers has to carry the burden of batting once again but this time, he has the added responsibility of keeping wickets as Dane Villas is woefully out of form. That’s a dangerous strategy involving your premier player in a four-Test series.
On the bowling front, the hosts are in a better position following the return of Dale Steyn from injury. The premier quick was unavailable for a major portion of the India Test series and captain Amla definitely felt his absence. But with Steyn and Morne Morkel back together, they should have a lot more self belief.
England, on the other hand, will miss James Anderson, ruled out of the first Test due to a calf strain. But England without Anderson are not as crippled as South Africa without Steyn.
Stuart Broad led the bowling attack superbly the last time Anderson was unavailable, with the 29-year-old stepping up and grabbing 8-15 in the Trent Bridge Ashes Test. What’s more, tall quick Steven Finn has recovered from injury and is raring to have a go. It really isn’t a huge gulf when it comes to the pace attack.
Where England hold the edge is in the batting department and overall balance. Captain Alastair Cook is the leading scorer in Tests in 2015 while Joe Root has been the bulwark of their batting.
With spinning all-rounder Moeen Ali set to bat at No. 8, England have an incredible depth. Also, Ali’s off spin is much better than anything the Proteas can offer and England have the ability to prosper in absolutely any conditions South Africa throw at them.
South Africa are a side who achieved stratospheric success for close to a decade but are now gradually slipping due to lack of quality openers, spinners and a wicketkeeper-batsman.
England on the other hand have decent options for all positions and the all-rounders in their arsenal – Ben Stokes, keeper Jonny Bairstow, Ali, Broad and Chris Woakes – are of the highest quality.
Add to that a captain who is high on confidence with his personal form and England surely have a lot more reasons to be confident than South Africa.
The Proteas will no doubt be hard nuts to crack in home conditions. But in England they have a young and highly talented side that can match them blow for blow. They better watch out.