A five Test series truly tests the character of a team. In a short encounter, like the two-match skirmish between England and Bangladesh, there is every chance of one brilliant effort or one shocking session to decide the series; Alastair Cook’s team lost 10 wickets in a session in the second match against the Tigers to settle for a drawn series.
But when a team plays five matches pretty much back to back, its strengths and weaknesses are revealed.
As India prepare to host England for the first of five Tests in Rajkot, they will start as favourites. Sure, the absence of KL Rahul, Rohit Sharma and Shikhar Dhawan in the Indian batting line-up is a setback for the hosts while England will be buoyed by the earlier than expected return of pace spearhead James Anderson.
Those two developments have reduced the gap between the teams to some extent but India still hold the upper hand at home.
There are two major deciding factors in this series. First, it’s the form of Ravi Ashwin as India’s entire gameplan revolves around the ace spinner.
Since India are a bit thin in the batting department, Ashwin’s form with the bat No6 or 7 will play a critical role in India’s attempt to reach respectable totals, even with the presence of an in-form Virat Kohli. He has been doing so for a few seasons and India will be depending on Ashwin’s batting prowess more than they are willing to admit. Let’s not forget, in the victorious series in the West Indies, Ashwin was the team’s fourth-highest run-scorer, just 16 runs less than table topper Kohli.
With the ball, India is all about Ashwin.
Ravindra Jadeja is a champion bowler in Indian conditions but Kohli goes to Ashwin every time he needs a breakthrough. If Ashwin is even slightly off his game, there will be some panic.
And secondly, there is the Decision Review System. The low and slow wickets in the upcoming series will see bowlers target the stumps, which should mean numerous appeals for lbw. Margins are going to be small in a series that is unlikely to see very high scores. So every decision that is won or overturned will have significant consequences.
Whichever team makes the most judicious use of DRS will be in a position of strength as failed reviews can affect the psyche of a team, as it did for India against Sri Lanka in the 2008 Test series where they got just one out of 20 referrals right and also lost the series.
So while Kohli will be fairly confident of his team’s chances, he knows things can unravel pretty quickly. India are not on firm footing as far as team combination is concerned and England, for all their lack of experience, will be fielding their first-choice XI, more or less. Therefore, Ashwin’s form with the bat and ball, along with the success rate of teams with the DRS, are likely to make the biggest difference.
Both teams have enough talent in their squads to dream big. India have form on their side but England are no pushovers and injuries to three key Indian batsmen, plus the unavailability of seamer Bhuvneshwar Kumar and the uncertainty about the bowling form of Ishant Sharma, who is returning after recovering from chikungunya, have added to the intrigue.
It won’t be a walk in the park for India and England have the freedom of playing without any pressure of expectations. In such a situation, even minor tremors can have great implications.